I’ll vote for Elizabeth Warren in the upcoming California presidential primary because of her tax proposals and values.

First, why not vote for a Republican or candidate from another party?  I am not registered with any political party, yet the Democratic Party aligns best with my values. They are concerned about climate change, inequality, and education. If I had lived in the 1950s to 70s, I may have voted Republican, yet now the GOP denies climate change, ignores inequality, and in general seems to be in thrall to a conman-in-chief.  I align with many libertarian values, yet the Libertarian Party is weak on inequality and climate change, and doesn’t have electable candidates. I hope in the future that I can find candidates from the Republican or other parties that I can vote for.

The Warren policy I’m most happy with is her tax plan which includes a more progressive income tax, and a wealth tax on the ultra-rich.  For these super-wealthy people, her tax plan aligns well with the tax structure of the 1950s; see the figure below.¹ Her plan is dramatically better at stabilizing the income distribution than our current tax code; the net effect of her proposal is a feedback loop that encourages the growth of the middle class. In the current system, which includes Trump tax cuts for the rich,  the lowest income people pay a higher rate than the ultra-wealthy.  While Biden’s tax plan is better than the current system, it still gives the ultra-rich a lower tax rate than the middle class.  One thing that I wish one of the candidates would have done is lower the tax for the lowest-income people to 1950 levels or lower.

Why tax the rich so heavily; doesn’t reducing their taxes result in a trickle-down effect on the economy? No, this is a myth.² I described previously how progressive taxes (which inherently tax the wealthy more than the poor) push more people into the middle class. I believe a strong middle class makes for a much more stable society; I also believe that we should have programs to enable the people in the lowest income brackets to work their way into higher brackets; i.e. to increase income and wealth mobility.

Why not vote for Bernie Sanders?  His policies are similar to Warren’s, he understands the problem of inequality, and arguably is the one who created the progressive side of the Democratic party, so why don’t I just vote for him?  Because I trust Warren more than I trust Sanders.  He seems more inflexible and less likely to compromise.  Also, his policies are more extreme; I’d prefer that we reduce whiplash by not switching from an authoritarian to the most left-wing candidate.

I don’t support Warren on everything.  I’m very cautious about the “Medicare for All” program that Sanders and Warren support. Neither the advantages nor cost seem to me to be as clear as one would like for such a massive change from the present system. I don’t like her idea of the government producing generic versions of drugs.

Of course there is more to say.  This post is certainly inadequate for a full discussion of the candidates. I also don’t pretend to have been especially articulate. I’d be happy to talk with you about all the stuff I left out when I see you next.  Please change my mind 🙂

---

1. The figure comes from the “taxsimulator2” spreadsheet from Zucman and Saez. I combined the “1950s” curve from the “interface” tab with the figure in the showing the candidates tax plans.
2. It is possible for a capital-gains tax change that would better take advantage of wealth and better approximate a trickle-down effect. See this article from Clayton Christensen for the basic idea.